Race to the White House
Leans Harris
308-230
The polls have been consistently showing that the race between Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and fmr. President Donald Trump (R) will be very close. While I believe that is true, late momentum for the Harris campaign in this final week *seems* to be granting her a slight edge in numerous battlegrounds. In the end, I predict she will narrowly win 6 of the 7 battlegrounds, with Trump notching Arizona. Let me break down each state:
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Michigan - Despite Democratic concerns of slippage amongst Arab-American voters in Dearborn and Dearborn Heights (and a late Trump play for those votes), the slippage does not seem dramatic enough to remove the blue edge that Michigan has shown since 2018. Detroit turnout looks likely to be high (a good sign for Democrats), and I expect the leftward suburban trend to continue in counties like Macomb, Kent, and Oakland.
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Wisconsin - The Badger State is difficult to read. Polls underestimated Trump the most here out of any swing state in both 2016 and 2020, so I am reticent to place too much trust in the polls again. That being said, the narrower margin between the two candidates in polling suggests to me that the shy Trump voter effect won't be at play as strongly this year as it was previously. The edge ultimately goes to Harris simply because the Democratic ground game in Wisconsin is state of the art while the GOP ground game in Wisconsin (as in most swing states!) is largely outsourced to Super PACs that don't know what they're doing.
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Pennsylvania - The Keystone State proved pivotal in 2020, and I suspect it will be again. Polling has shown a tight race (who'd a thunk it?), but as in Wisconsin the Democratic ground game is superior to that of Republicans. In addition, I see more growth opportunities for Harris in the suburban "collar counties" around Philadelphia than I do for Trump to further juice his already high numbers in the rural counties. Though I could be wrong! The early vote, while often a poor guide to predict outcomes, also shows a sizable Democratic "firewall" of votes that will give them a cushion against what is expected to be higher Republican turnout on Election Day.
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North Carolina - While conventional wisdom has said that NC would continue to be a white whale for Democrats (they narrowly lost the state in 2020), this is an area where my thought process has been a bit against the current. While the suburban shift leftward has been occurring here, North Carolina remains one of the most rural states in the country. That being said, polling has been relatively poor for Trump here, and the former president spent his final day of campaigning almost entirely in the state. The Trump campaign would not have done a last-minute swing through the Tarheel if they didn't see troubling internal numbers.
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Georgia - This is probably the prediction I have the least confidence in. Georgia went to Biden by a razor-thin margin in 2020, and whoever wins this time will likely win by a similar difference. The only reason I predict it will (barely) go for Harris is because the early vote turnout has been through the roof compared to 2020, a year when early voting also skyrocketed because of COVID. In higher diversity states like Georgia, high turnout tends to be better for Democrats. That being said, much of this turnout is also coming from white, rural counties, so maybe I'm off my rocker.
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Arizona - Polling has been worst for Harris here out of all the battleground states. Despite generally trending left since 2018, the Grand Canyon State seems to be arresting its momentum somewhat, perhaps driven by Trump gains amongst Latino men, an important constituency in Arizona. It'll be close, but there's not a lot of evidence to suggest anyone but Trump has the advantage here at the moment.
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Nevada - I'll be honest. In my initial prediction, I had Nevada going for Trump due to high Republican early vote turnout and gains amongst Latino men (like in Arizona). However, the great Jon Ralston released his final prediction today that he believes the state will barely go for the Vice President. If you're a political nerd like me, then you'd know that Ralston is THE election prognosticator for the state of Nevada. Back in 2022, I broke with Ralston on my prediction for the US Senate seat in Nevada. He thought it would go blue, I thought it would go red. Though deep down I was nervous about differing with Ralston's pick, I really thought I was right. Guess what? Jon Ralston was correct, and the Dems held the seat. I'm not making that mistake again this year. Advantage: Harris.
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Iowa - I hadn't considered this state a "battleground" until a couple days ago when Ann Selzer, the gold standard in Iowa polling, released a shock poll that showed Harris up by three in this state that Trump won by 8 in 2020. It's an outlier of a poll (most others show Trump with a healthy lead), but the final Selzer poll has a reputation for going against the grain right before the election only to prove everyone else wrong come Election Day. I might kick myself for not going with the final Selzer poll, but I'm guessing Trump will still win Iowa, albeit by a much smaller margin that anyone could have predicted a week ago.
Battle for the Senate
Leans Republican
51-49
The Senate map this year has always shown an uphill climb for Democrats to retain control of the Upper Chamber. Republicans are virtually guaranteed to gain a seat in ruby red West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring after a long career in the state. Furthermore, Sen. Jon Tester (D) doesn't look likely to overperform Harris enough in Montana to pull off a win. That would notch another pickup for the GOP. There are plenty of tight races elsewhere, but I predict the incumbent party to hold on everywhere else, even in Ohio and Texas where Sens. Sherrod Brown (D) and Ted Cruz (R) are facing strong challenges.
The Governors' Races
Safe Republican
27-23
Like the Senate contests, the map favors Republicans in the gubernatorial contests (yes, that is the adjectival form of "governor" {and yes, that is the adjectival form of "adjective"}). North Carolina should have been competitive, if the GOP hadn't nominated a scandal-plagued and controversial candidate in Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has previously referred to himself as a "Black Nazi" and declared that "some folks need killing" in reference to liberal voters. As a result, the race is a virtual lock for Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein. The only competitive race this year is in New Hampshire, where I believe fmr. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) will overperform Trump and barely edge out Democratic nominee Joyce Craig. Elsewhere, Republicans hold out hope for Dave Reichert in Washington, and Democrats express bullishness for Jennifer McCormick in Indiana. But I don't see any evidence that either of them have a good chance to win.
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Though not pictured here, I predict that Gov. Peleti Mauga (D) will win reelection in American Samoa, and Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon (PNP) will narrowly retain the governor's seat for the New Progressives over second-place Juan Dalmau (PIP).
The House of Representatives
Leans Democratic
223-212
Though it will be close, Democrats look poised to retake control of the House after losing it in 2022. New York and California in particular I expect to revert leftwards slightly to help Democrats recover their devastating '22 losses there. Iowa also looks to net Dems a couple seats, according to the bombshell Selzer poll. Republicans hope to offset these potential Dem gains with their new gerrymandered map in North Carolina, where they're guaranteed to pick up three, and Michigan, where a couple tight districts could go either way (I have one going blue, the other red).
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Though not pictured here, I predict that all of the non-voting delegates from the territories will win reelection except for Del. James Moylan (R) in Guam, where I predict he will narrowly lose to Democratic challenger Ginger Cruz. In the open Northern Marianas race, I predict Dems will hold the seat in a close contest.
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If you are unsure of who your Representative is or what Congressional District you live in, then I recommend going to www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative.
