Roy Blunt, a stalwart member of GOP congressional leadership and longtime Missouri politician, has become the latest Republican Senator to announce that he will retire rather than run for reelection in 2022. The announcement makes him the fifth Republican of this election cycle to opt for retirement, a not-unheard-of number to be sure (an unusually high 6 Democrats and 6 Republicans retired in 2010), but it is certainly higher than the norm. We are very early in the election cycle to have so many retirements announced, and there are at least three other Republicans in the Senate that are being watched for possible retirements.
What makes Sen. Blunt’s announcement all the more remarkable is that he was not on “retirement watch.” This decision came as a real shock to not just outside analysts but his colleagues in the Senate, as well. The same goes for GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, who also shocked his fellow Congresspeople by announcing his retirement earlier this year. One is a fluke, two is a coincidence, and Senate Republicans fear that a third will make a pattern. Members of Congress that were once taken for granted to run for another term are now being closely watched for fear of more surprises. Until Blunt’s bombshell, a slew of retirements from the Senate was not considered a possibility. However, now the media is all abuzz about GOP troubles in the upcoming midterms because of these unexpected departures. A Congressional seat is much easier to hold if an incumbent is running; open seats are more of a gamble for the party holding it. So should Republicans be worried that these retirements spell trouble in the midterms?
Let’s take a look at the other three retirements. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama is 86 years old, making him the third oldest Senator currently serving. His retirement makes perfect sense at his age (he’s not retiring because of intraparty struggles or an unfavorable political climate). Furthermore, Alabama is a deep red state that shows no signs of electing a Democrat to the Senate short of some fluke like the 2017 special election. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania was elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010 that favored the idea of self-imposed term limits. It had long been understood that Toomey would only serve two terms before retiring. Once again, his decision to retire does not in and of itself suggest GOP woes. That being said, Pennsylvania is a hotly contested swing state, with Pres. Biden only winning the state by a little over one point. Toomey’s retirement makes this one of Democrats’ biggest pickup opportunities in 2022. Finally, Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina was elected in 2004 and made clear after his last reelection in 2016 that this third term would be his last. This is yet another perfectly normal retirement, one that does not signal any kind of trouble on its own. Once again, however, North Carolina has become more of a swing state over the past couple decades. This will be another top Democratic target.
So far with these three, Republicans will certainly be disappointed in losing relatively strong incumbents in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but these retirements are no more unusual than the typical election cycle. The real concern has been the retirements of Rob Portman and Roy Blunt that came out of left field. Both senators have also suggested that the reason for their departure is not personal or health issues, but rather the growing polarization and animosity in national politics as well as the movement to the extreme right and left wings of each respective party. I find this somewhat ironic in that their retirements make it more likely that they will be replaced by more hardcore political hatchetfolk. Regardless, this is rather telling about how toxic and divisive our politics has become. As much as Pres. Biden has stated that he hopes to bring bipartisanship back to Washington, it feels more and more that we are progressing into an evermore partisan age of American politics (Biden’s own covid stimulus plan was passed along strictly partisan lines).
There are three more Republican senators who are being watched for potential retirements. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski was one of the 7 Republicans to vote to convict former President Donald Trump on the charge of inciting insurrection. Consequently, Trump has repeatedly pledged to campaign to defeat Murkowski in 2022. Though some have suggested that Murkowski could opt to retire rather than face a challenge from a Trumpian Republican, I suspect that she will run again anyway. In 2020, Alaska approved a significant election reform that establishes a kind of jungle primary akin to California, Washington, and Louisiana. The difference is that the top four candidates proceed to the general election rather than just the top two. In such a split general election contest, I think Murkowski would have to be considered the favorite despite a Trumpian challenge.
The second is Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, one of Trump’s staunchest allies in the Senate and a frequent propagator of lies concerning the integrity of the 2020 election. Johnson has indicated that he would retire in 2022, but Trump and other Republican leaders have reportedly been lobbying him aggressively to run for reelection. Wisconsin will be a close contest regardless of whether Johnson retires or not, but Republicans believe they have a slightly better chance with Johnson than without him.
Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa is the third GOP Senator to watch. Elected to the Senate in 1980, Grassley is the most senior Republican in the chamber. Given that he will be age 89 on Election Day 2022, speculation about his retirement has been rampant and even expected. Remarkably, the senator has said that he is still undecided about reelection and that he will likely make a decision by this fall. I don’t know about you, but I would be pretty ready to retire at age 89.
Back to the initial question, does this spell trouble for the GOP in 2022? Despite the media buzz, I’m more skeptical. Just because old guard moderates are leaving Congress due to polarization does not mean that partisan warriors cannot win their seats. Missouri has been a reliably Republican state for a while now, and Ohio has grown increasingly red in the Trump era. Alaska and Iowa also decidedly favor the GOP. While a loss of incumbents in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and possibly Wisconsin undoubtedly don’t help Republicans, those states were never considered safe GOP holds anyway. Of course, any race can become competitive given particularly weak or strong candidates, but I don’t see any good reason to believe that Democrats have an upperhand going into the midterms because of these retirements (on the contrary, the Senate appears to be a complete tossup right now). It seems to me that this is just the media seizing on whatever juicy bit of news they can and play it up for viewership. Trump is no longer president and has been deplatformed from Twitter. In this era of Biden, there are just fewer exciting headlines to run with.
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