I can hardly believe that the election is tomorrow. After a century-long year full of disease, tensions, and trampled democratic norms, the idea that the most tense and disconcerting election since 1968 is about to end seems fictitious at best. Yet here we are, and on this Election Day eve I have formulated my final predictions of the cycle. Rather than explain every single prediction in painful detail, I will provide a map of my predictions for the presidential, senate, and gubernatorial races, respectively, to give you a clear picture right off the bat. Following each map, I will summarize my predictions only of tight races (I don’t think Idaho going red requires any explanation). The tight races will be ordered from the predictions I am least confident in at number 1 to those I am most confident in.
Presidential Election (Biden 389 - Trump 149)
We will know for sure tomorrow, but there are too many signs that this will be a comfortable Biden victory for me to ignore. Of course, upsets can and do happen, but that is what a Trump win would be at this point - an upset. National polls place Biden’s lead at 8 points or higher, with many giving him a double digit edge. If this proves accurate, then it would be almost impossible for Trump to win the Electoral College with such a crushing popular vote loss. Notice that I say “almost.” This popular vote lead could be powered by the phenomenon I mentioned in my Nebraska post a couple of months ago in which red states are showing Biden with stronger than usual numbers for a Democrat. Trump could theoretically lose the popular vote in a landslide but still win the Electoral College if he scrapes by in enough battleground states by razor-thin margins. This is a highly unlikely scenario, but Trump has beaten the odds before.
Florida (Tossup - Biden) I have agonized over how to rate the Sunshine State more than any other. Even after I began writing my first draft of this post, I changed my mind on Florida again. But now I need to lock in a prediction, and I’m going with Biden. The Democratic nominee has consistently led in Florida polls (albeit narrowly), with crucial edges in support from Independents and seniors. However, Trump has made gains amongst the state’s Latino population, meaning that this will be decided by which demographic trend outweighs the other. This state could really go either way.
Texas (Tossup - Biden) You probably would have expected this state to be first, and the Lone Star state had been considered a Leaning Trump state for me for a long time. What has changed my mind at the eleventh hour is the ridiculously high turnout in early voting in Texas so far. More early votes have been cast in Texas than Texans cast in the entire 2016 election! Though we do not have specific county numbers for most of the state, we do know that some of the places that are powering this massive turnout are big cities like Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth as well as suburbs that turned against Republicans sharply in 2018, such as Tarrant County. If Biden can pull off wins in some of those formerly Republican suburban counties while driving up turnout in the big cities (the latter of which seems to be playing out already), then he could become the first Democrat to carry Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Georgia (Tossup - Biden) Another “out there” prediction on this list, my view on Georgia changed for similar reasons to Texas. Early voting has shown significantly higher than usual turnout amongst African-Americans. Curiously, these early vote numbers came at about the same time that polling began to trend towards Biden in the Peach State. Down-ballot contests have also been looking tight. Georgia is the definition of a tossup this year, but I’m giving Biden a slight advantage because of early turnout.
North Carolina (Tossup - Biden) The Tar Heel State has been giving Biden a consistent but small lead for the past few months. Though there seems to have been an oh-so-slight narrowing in the past couple weeks, I do not think there has been enough of a shift for Trump to win. Early voting in North Carolina, especially amongst African-Americans and Democrats, has also been relatively high.
Ohio (Tossup - Trump) Despite Biden holding a slight polling advantage here for much of the year, many analysts (including myself) just assumed that Ohio would be Trump territory. In the past few weeks, that feeling seems to have been reinforced by rising fortunes for Trump in the state. However, the last two days of final election polling have suggested a coin toss of a race in Ohio. Biden definitely has a chance here, but I’m leaning towards Trump.
Arizona (Leans Biden) After going blue in the 2018 Senate race, Arizona has been narrowly advantaging Biden this entire cycle. Moderate suburbs and a growing Latino population seem to be giving Biden the edge, and I suspect Arizona will go blue tomorrow.
Iowa (Leans Trump) For most of the cycle, the Hawkeye State has been Trump’s to lose. In the past month, the state began tightening, with Biden even opening up a slight lead this past week. This led me to believe that Biden could be peaking in the state at just the right time to win. However, a Selzer Poll (arguably one of the best polls in the country) on Sunday showed Trump with a gaping 7 point lead. While even the best of polls can be wrong, these numbers reinforce the previous understanding that Trump is the favorite in Iowa.
Pennsylvania (Leans Biden) The Keystone State is living up to its name. I am convinced that whoever wins this state will win the Presidency. That being said, there are paths for Biden to win without it, but not so for Trump who could see his electoral fortunes destroyed if this one state goes blue. Polling suggests that that is exactly what will happen, though Biden’s 5-point average lead is close enough that a polling error could mean a second Trump upset here.
Nevada (Leans Biden) There has been surprisingly little polling in Nevada this cycle, perhaps because many analysts believe Nevada is a sure thing for Biden. While I do believe Biden will ultimately win Nevada, I think it may be closer than expected, as the Trump campaign has spent a lot of effort in reaching out to Latino voters in the state, and some polling has shown Biden with low single digit leads.
Though Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have all been considered battleground states by the media throughout this contest, they have not appeared particularly competitive for some time now. I am quite confident in my predictions here.
Senate Elections (Republicans 50 {-3} - Democrats 50 {+3})
The Senate, to the very end, is a tossup. As it stands, I think a Republican pickup in Alabama will save the GOP from ceding an outright majority to the Democrats. However, close races in Iowa and Georgia could flip, giving Democrats the Senate regardless of the presidential results. I am predicting that the upper chamber will be split evenly down the middle, however, leaving control of the Senate left to whoever is Vice President in January.
Georgia Regular (Tossup - Republican Hold) While the polling in the Senate race has been similar to the presidential race in the state (namely, that it is close with the Democratic candidate rising in the close of the race), it will be much tougher for Democrats to win this Senate seat than it will be for Biden to win Georgia. The reason? For the Senate contests, a candidate needs to get over 50% tomorrow to win. Otherwise, the top two vote-getters will proceed to a runoff in January, where turnout will likely be much lower and more Republican. There is a very good chance that Democrat Jon Ossoff will be leading in the vote on Election Day, but I don’t think he will be able to get over 50 to avoid the runoff.
Iowa (Tossup - Republican Hold) Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, once seen as a shoe-in for reelection, has stumbled these past few weeks into Election Day. Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield has run a very disciplined and effective campaign. Particularly stinging for Ernst was a debate when she failed to name the going price of soybeans after Greenfield handily named the price of corn. If Ernst wins reelection (which I still suspect she will), it will be narrow and possibly by the coattails of Pres. Trump.
Arizona (Leans Democratic Pickup) I wrote off this race for Republicans months ago when former astronaut and husband of shooting victim Rep. Gabby Giffords, Mark Kelly, was recruited by Democrats to run for the seat. But Republican Sen. Martha McSally has made up some ground in the final stretch of the race, with polls tightening somewhat. Will it be enough for her to pull off a comeback victory? It is quite possible, but I’m still giving Kelly the edge.
North Carolina (Leans Democratic Pickup) The bombshell story of the Democratic nominee having an extramarital affair several weeks ago at first seemed to give Republicans a ray of hope in a race that was trending against them. However, the polls have shown little if any tightening after the scandal. As such, Democrat Cunningham has the edge in my prediction.
Maine (Leans Democratic Pickup) After a storied reputation as a moderate politician unafraid to compromise with Democrats, Republican Sen. Susan Collins may be a day away from the end of her political career. Democrat Sara Gideon has consistently led in the polls, and Maine’s ranked choice voting system adds a layer of complexity to the race. This system of voting asks voters to rank each candidate on the ballot. When votes are initially counted, the tally will show voters’ first choices. If no candidate receives over 50% of first choice votes, then the candidate who came in last will be dropped and their second choices added to the other candidates. This is repeated until a candidate gets a majority. Collins and Gideon have both been polling under 50% fairly consistently, which adds importance to the candidacy of liberal Independent Lisa Savage, whose supporters would most likely rank the Democrat as their second choice (there is also a Republican-leaning Independent on the ballot, but his campaign has not garnered the kind of support that Savage’s has).
South Carolina (Leans Republican Hold) Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison has raised a mind-boggling sum in his bid to oust Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham has clearly been sweating under the pressure, as he has spent weeks going on news programs to publicly ask viewers to donate money to his overwhelmed campaign. The race will likely be the closest the Palmetto State has seen in years, but I think the conservative bent of South Carolina will prevail and send Sen. Graham back for another term.
Montana (Leans Republican Hold) After an initial scare when popular Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock jumped into the race, Republicans have delivered solid fundraising and support to Sen. Steve Daines. The polls have drifted towards the Republicans recently, a trend that I believe will hold tomorrow.
Kansas (Leans Republican Hold) This has been something of a sleeper race for Democrats, as their nominee Barbara Bollier has run a strong campaign as a moderate former Republican alleging that the state GOP has become too extreme. Her messaging would have been more effective if her opponent was thoroughly Trumpian former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. But unfortunately for the Democrats, relatively bland Rep. Roger Marshall got the nomination. Bollier will likely still be competitive, but Marshall should be inoffensive enough to moderate Kansans still weary from the controversial politics of former Gov. Sam Brownback for the GOP to hold their record of winning Senate seats in Kansas stretching back to 1932.
Governors’ Races (Republicans 27 {+1} - Democrats 23 {-1})
The gubernatorial contests have been some of the most boring races this cycle, with only Montana being truly competitive. Midterms have significantly more governors’ races, so we will have to wait a couple years before we have a lot of potential movement here.
Montana (Leans Republican Pickup) Like the Senate race, Montana began looking fairly close in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Greg Gianforte and Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney. However, in the final weeks there has been a definite trend towards Republicans. Cooney still has a shot, especially with Montana posting very high turnout numbers in early voting, but Gianforte has a noticeable edge going into Election Day.
Missouri (Likely Republican Hold) Republican Gov. Mike Parson has been holding a relatively close lead throughout the race, and I suspect that he will win by single digits on Tuesday.
North Carolina (Likely Democratic Hold) Despite Republicans being bullish about taking down Gov. Roy Cooper (who Pres. Trump frequently criticizes at his rallies), the polling has consistently shown a comfortable lead for Cooper over Republican challenger Dan Forest. Regardless of which presidential candidate wins North Carolina, Cooper should win reelection handily.
House Races (Democrats 242 {+9} - Republicans 193 {-8})
Down-ballot Republicans have not been helped by President Trump’s flagging performance throughout this electoral cycle, quite similarly to the blue wave of 2018. However, given that most of the tight Republican-held seats were already swept two years ago, Democrats have little room left for growth. That being said, I am predicting that they will grow their majority ever so slightly, with Texas being the biggest battleground to net new blue seats. Believe it or not, I do predict that Republicans will pick up two California spots but will be overwhelmed by a gross gain of 11 seats by Dems. And before you ask, the discrepancy between the {+9} for Democrats and {-8} for Republicans is because one of my predicted pickups for Democrats is the Michigan seat of Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party to become a Libertarian last year. There are numerous close races this year, with no less than a whopping 22 tossups in my final prediction, but here are the five I am least confident in of those 22.
California’s 48th (Tossup - Republican Pickup) This Orange County seat was flipped by Democrat Harley Rouda in 2018, taking down longtime Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. Rouda has built a reputation as a moderate Democrat who opposes more liberal propositions such as the Green New Deal or single-payer healthcare. However, he is running for reelection in a fairly conservative district that only barely gave him the victory in a blue wave year. Republican nominee Michelle Steel appears to be a strong challenger, going toe to toe with Rouda on fundraising, something that most Republican candidates cannot say this cycle. The race is a real coin toss, but I suspect that the district will vote for Biden at the top of the ticket while supporting Steel in this House race.
Florida’s 26th (Tossup - Democratic Hold) Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running neck and neck with Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, a moderate Republican who has tried keeping his distance from Pres. Trump. Turnout in Miami-Dade so far has seemed to favor Republicans in the early vote count in a worrying sign for Democrats. The race is still close, though, and Gimenez could suffer from a dissatisfied conservative base that may turnout to support the President but not him.
California’s 21st (Tossup - Republican Pickup) Democratic Rep. TJ Cox suffered a major hit to his image after it was revealed that he failed to disclose foreign business ties during his 2018 campaign that resulted in a razor thin victory by under one thousand votes. This year is a rematch with former Rep. David Valadao, and Cox has run a decidedly bumbling campaign, most recently getting in trouble for admitting to fabricating a tweet supposedly from Valadao that derided the state of California. Cox barely won in 2018 with a blue wave. His remarkably poor campaign this year does not bode well for his reelection chances, but Trump’s drag on down-ballot Republicans could give him a “Get Out of Jail Free” card.
Minnesota’s 1st (Tossup - Democratic Pickup) This is an incredibly close race in a swing district that Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn flipped in 2018 (a rare Republican flip in the House that year). He is facing a rematch with Dan Feehan, who I give a slight edge. However, if Trump manages to overperform the polls in Minnesota, Hagedorn could be carried to victory on the President’s coattails.
New Mexico’s 2nd (Tossup - Democratic Hold) The victory of Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in 2018 was considered something of an upset in the normally conservative, rural 2nd District. This year, she is facing a rematch from Republican Yvette Herrell, with the race looking just as tight as it did two years ago. Polling shows the contest to be in the margin of error, and I am only giving the race to Democrats because of expected coattails in the state from Joe Biden.
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