For only the second time in California history (and fourth in U.S. history), voters will be deciding whether to remove their governor from office. The first time this happened, in 2003, Democratic Gov. Gray Davis lost due to high unfavorability and a poor economy, paving the way for Arnold Schwarzenegger to famously make the jump from Hollywood to Sacramento. This time around, Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has a favorability rating over 50% and a scattered field of challengers. Seems like an easy Democratic win, right? Not necessarily, since concerns about voter apathy and uncertainty surrounding the rise of the delta coronavirus variant have cast some doubt on the race.
Consider this your guide to arguably the most highly-watched election of 2021.
WHY IS THERE A RECALL TO BEGIN WITH?
California has some of the easiest requirements in the country for initiating a recall election. One needs only as many signatures as 12% of the voters in the last election.
Because of the lax requirements, recall petitions are frequently circulated, no matter who the governor is. However, they usually do not collect enough signatures to qualify.
This recall petition was initiated early in Newsom’s term in 2019. After struggling to gain signatures, the recall movement gained steam from the controversy over Newsom’s strict and often poorly-communicated pandemic lockdown measures.
A judge also extended the petition deadline by four months due to the difficulty in gathering signatures during the pandemic. The extra four months gave the time needed to qualify for the ballot.
HOW DOES THE RECALL BALLOT WORK?
The recall ballot has two questions. The first is a simple yes or no question: Should Gov. Gavin Newsom be removed from office? The second question asks who should become governor if Newsom is removed.
Even if voters voted to keep Newsom on the first question, they will still have the opportunity to vote on the second question.
Gavin Newsom cannot appear as an option on the second question, so his political survival depends entirely on the first question, getting enough voters to say “No” to his removal.
WHO IS RUNNING TO REPLACE NEWSOM?
There are 46 total candidates on the ballot for the second question.
Gov. Newsom worried that if another major Democrat was on the ballot, then some Democratic voters who preferred the other Democrat could vote to remove him from office. Therefore, Newsom worked tirelessly behind the scenes to prevent a major Democrat from running in the recall.
Because of this, the only major candidates are Republicans, a significant risk for Democrats should Newsom fail.
The Republican frontrunner is libertarian radio host Larry Elder of Los Angeles. Though dogged by a scandal involving allegations of domestic violence and abuse by his former fiancee, Elder has managed to maintain a tenuous lead amongst Republicans by appearing the most Trumpian in demeanor, as a blunt fighter who likes to stoke controversy.
John Cox, the Republican nominee in the 2018 governor’s race, is running again as a pro-Trump conservative. He has struggled to make the case for a second chance from voters, leaving his campaign to pursue headline-making props such as bringing a live bear to campaign events.
Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego, is the favorite of moderate Republicans who prefer old school Rockefeller or Romney-style Republicanism over modern Trumpism. After initially being seen as the favorite, Faulconer has fallen severely behind since the rise of Larry Elder. Faulconer has notably called for Elder to drop out of the race following the domestic violence allegations.
Caitlyn Jenner, is a famous former Olympic athlete and entertainer who has tried to pitch herself as the new Arnold Schwarzenegger or Ronald Reagan, the celebrity-turned-politician to save California from entrenched liberalism. However, following some gaffe-filled interviews intended to gin up excitement for her campaign, Jenner has fallen to the low single digits in most polling.
Kevin Kiley, a conservative member of the state Assembly, has made a name for himself as a fierce opponent of Newsom’s lockdown measures. This has made him a natural opponent in the recall and has garnered him favor in Trump-style Republican circles.
Though no major Democrat is running, there are two somewhat notable Dems on the ballot. The first is Kevin Paffrath, a moderate and a YouTuber with a decent Internet following. Though likely an outlier, one SurveyUSA poll actually showed Paffrath leading on the second question (though I attribute that to the fact that he was the only named Democrat in the poll - all subsequent polls to include multiple named Democrats have shown the Democratic vote incredibly divided amongst them).
The second notable Democrat is Jacqueline McGowan, a pro-cannabis lobbyist who has gotten a late boost from Internet hype and a shout-out from comedian Bill Maher on his show.
Of all the third party candidates, only two are of any note. Jeff Hewitt, a Riverside County supervisor, is the Libertarian candidate in the race, having also been known as a fierce lockdown opponent who pushed Riverside County to countermand Newsom’s lockdown orders and COVID restrictions. His candidacy, like Elder’s, has also been dogged by scandal, as two former employees have accused him of sexual harassment, the first accusation being settled out of court.
The other third party candidate of note is James G. Hanink, a former philosophy professor at Loyola Marymount University. He is the candidate of the American Solidarity Party, a party that grounds itself foremost in a pro-life philosophy while allowing for limited government intervention in economic affairs inasmuch as it facilitates broad private ownership. As an academic, Hanink has served as a proponent of the party’s platform from an intellectual perspective.
HOW LIKELY IS THE RECALL TO SUCCEED?
If you asked me three months ago, I would say there was almost no chance that Newsom would be recalled. If you asked me one month ago, I would say that Newsom only had a slight edge to survive. Now, I rate this race as a Likely Newsom Hold.
The single most crucial factor is turnout. A relatively low-key recall election such as this will almost certainly have less voters than in a midterm or presidential election. This is expected to benefit Republicans, since surveys show that the enthusiasm is clearly on their side.
However, and this is a big “however,” California has a stunning near-5 million more registered Democrats than registered Republicans (almost double the size, given that Republicans only number a little over 5 million themselves). This means that Republicans either need extremely low Democratic turnout or they need a decent margin of Democrats to vote in favor of the recall.
In a bad sign for Republicans, the Secretary of State’s office has reported a high number of returned ballots, suggesting that turnout will be higher than the needed Democratic apathy for a GOP victory.
KEY THINGS TO WATCH ON ELECTION DAY
Republicans have been facing a sharp decline in support in Orange County recently, accelerated particularly by the rise of Donald Trump. In 2018, Gavin Newsom became the first Democrat to carry the county in a governor’s race since Jerry Brown’s landslide reelection in 1978. The GOP likely needs to see “Yes” votes of at least 60% in OC if the recall stands any chance of succeeding. Orange County has a density of high-propensity voters that have historically voted for Republican causes. If the recall isn’t racking up big numbers here, then the recall isn’t going to happen.
Neighboring Los Angeles County is crucially important for Newsom to survive the recall. LA is by far the biggest population in California, and it is heavily Democratic. If turnout approaches the almost 3 million who voted in 2018, then Newsom should rest easy, having won the county with over 70% last time around. I apologize to any Northern California readers that I am putting so much weight on the south, but the reality is that LA, Orange County, and San Diego are where the votes are at. The south will make or break this recall.
Will one Democratic candidate consolidate the liberal vote on the second question? As mentioned before, Paffrath and McGowan appear to have the best shot at consolidating the Democratic vote. However, Newsom is encouraging his supporters to leave the second question blank. If enough Democratic voters go ahead and pick a candidate on the second question anyway, then a consolidated Democratic vote could lead to a Democrat coming out on top even if Newsom loses the recall. I should clarify that this is highly unlikely to happen. Neither Paffrath or McGowan has the name recognition or momentum that Larry Elder has had amongst Republicans. But a Paffrath or McGowan win would suggest an even deeper problem for the state GOP than is currently understood.
The results of the recall election on Tuesday could have national implications, especially if the recall succeeds and a Republican is swept into office. A Newsom loss could give momentum to the GOP as the nation gears up for the 2022 midterms. Of course, the same could be said for the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia this year, but a Republican pickup in California would reverberate far more heavily on the national stage. Given the weight of this election, I encourage all Californians to vote if you have not already, regardless of your political leanings. Mail-in ballots will be collected from official drop boxes up through Election Day, so it is not too late to cast your vote!
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