The Virginia governor’s race, while initially seen as a safe bet for the Democrats to hold onto, has turned into a razor thin contest here in the final stretch. Of all the elections being held this year, Virginia is seen as the most important as a possible barometer of how the 2022 midterms could go. Historically, the Virginia governorship has always been one by the party outside of the White House. Democrat Ralph Northam won the seat in 2017 during Trump’s tenure, Republican Bob McDonnell took the office in 2009 while Obama was President, etc. This streak held up for over four decades until Democrat Terry McAuliffe won in 2013 at the start of then-Pres. Obama’s second term. Since then, the state has only continued to drift leftward. Is the Old Dominion no longer a bellwether for the political trends of the day? Democrats certainly hope so, while the GOP is betting on a return to form for the state’s contrarian reputation.
Background
Ralph Northam is the current governor. A Democrat, Northam is unable to seek reelection as Virginia is the only state in the country which prohibits two consecutive terms. Northam’s tenure has been reflective of the state’s broader leftward swing since Barack Obama first won the state in 2008, kicking off an as-of-yet unbeaten streak for Democrats in presidential contests. The first half of Northam’s term set him up against a Republican-controlled legislature. However, Democrats swept both houses of the state legislature in the 2019 elections, completing Virginia’s transition from a solidly red state at the beginning of the century to a decidedly blue hue now. The Democrats have not let their full control of state government go to waste, as they have since passed a number of liberal priorities such as abolishing the death penalty and raising the minimum wage. But with such a dramatic political transformation in the past 15 years, this year’s election will be a test for the leftward trend. Political backlashes are a mainstay of American elections; eight years of Democratic control has produced a potential opening for Republicans to make the case for a course reversal.
Who’s Running?
The Democratic nominee is former Governor Terry McAuliffe who broke the 40+ year streak of out-of-power-party victories in the state. While Virginia prohibits two consecutive terms, McAuliffe became reeligible for the office after being out for four years. The epitome of an establishment Democrat, McAuliffe served as the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and as Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign co-chair before being elected as Governor in 2013. Despite the liberalization of the state, McAuliffe has sought to position himself as a technocratic center-left candidate, going so far as to call on Congress to pass the pending bipartisan infrastructure bill before a deal on Biden’s social spending plan is reached. To further this persona, McAuliffe has focused his campaign on tying his Republican opponent to former President Donald Trump and the more extreme elements of the GOP.
The former CEO of a private equity firm, Glenn Youngkin is the Republican nominee. More than anything else, Youngkin has made education the centerpiece of his campaign, arguing against vaccine and mask mandates in schools. He has also pushed back against the teaching of Critical Race Theory, a historiographical philosophy that proposes a more significant analysis of slavery and racism throughout American history. In broad strokes, Youngkin has been attempting a delicate balancing act between portraying himself as moderate enough to be acceptable to an ever bluer Virginia while also satisfying the now-dominant Trump wing of the Republican Party by embracing culture war issues that have become a GOP litmus test. Republicans have also seized on a gaffe by McAuliffe in the final debate in which the former Governor seemed to suggest that parents should not have a say in their children’s education, providing fuel to Youngkin’s education-focused platform.
Running on the “Liberation Party” ticket, Princess Blanding serves as a noteworthy third party candidate. A liberal grassroots activist, Blanding is running to the left of McAuliffe as she argues for more comprehensive and structural change more in the vein of the Sanders/Warren/Cortez wing of the Democratic Party. Her campaign, as most third party campaigns are, is most focused on garnering attention and raising the profile of particular issues. In Blanding’s case, a major issue is racism and police reform. Democrats are concerned that Blanding could split the liberal vote and allow a Youngkin plurality victory, leading McAuliffe to avoid any talk of the Blanding campaign in a bid to keep oxygen away from her candidacy.
So Who’s Gonna Win?
A few things to bear in mind:
As already mentioned, Virginia has been trending blue over the past two decades. In the 2004 election, George W. Bush won by a comfortable 8-point margin, continuing a Republican winning streak in the Old Dominion stretching back to 1964. In 2008, Barack Obama picked up what had now become a battleground state by 6 points, followed by similar margins in 2012 and 2016. That seemingly modest Democratic edge turned into an avalanche in 2020, when Joe Biden won by a whopping 10 points, a Democratic win not seen in the state since FDR. This Democratic lean gives McAuliffe a decided advantage from the get-go.
However, and this is a big however, if the 2020 election taught us anything, it is that Donald Trump was more unpopular with voters than the Republican Party at large. Even as Trump lost the presidency, Republicans made surprising gains in the House, frequently running well ahead of the then-President in swing districts. While Youngkin does not want to alienate the Trump base, he has sought to moderate his persona. Based on the tight polling in the race, that strategy appears to be working.
Democrats depend heavily on the large population centers in northern Virginia bordering DC, such as the city of Alexandria and Arlington and Loudoun Counties. The rapid growth in northern Virginia along with erosion of support for the GOP in the suburbs during the Trump years have powered Democrats’ winning streak. For the Republicans to win, they need low turnout in the northern cities, high turnout in rural areas, and suburban voters to return to the Republican fold. With a favorable turnout scenario, Youngkin doesn’t even need to win suburban counties such as Fairfax or Norfolk - 40% of the vote in these places would almost certainly mark a Youngkin victory statewide.
The polls have been incredibly tight, though consistently showing McAuliffe with a razor-thin lead. A notable outlier was a recent Fox News poll (a highly respected pollster) showing Youngkin with an 8-point lead. While I don’t expect either candidate to win by that wide of a margin, the poll does suggest some late momentum for the Youngkin campaign, leading me to rate this race as a Tossup. That being said, if I had to make a prediction, I am still leaning towards McAuliffe to pull this one out. In any event, the race is extremely close, and neither candidate is likely to win by more than a few points (if more than one).
Comments